How to Tell How Exciting a Game Was – From Just In-Game Data

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We all have our favourite sports, and our favourite sport moments that make the highlight reels.

However, what if you could judge how boring or exciting a game was, simply by analysing the in-play implied percentages for each team or outcome?

This is what is promised by a new site,


Here is the graph of the recent Champions League game between Man United and Bayern Munich. You can see how dramatic the betting market responds to a goal- the implied probability for a Man United win spikes sharply upwards when Vidic scored, then sharply back down when Bayern equalised. The game ends a 1-1 draw, as you can see the implied chance for either team scoring trended towards 0% as the 90 minutes approached. The fixture between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona finishing in a similar fashion:



There could be interesting opportunities for profit when analysing games like this.

Read the full article on how the “hotness” algorithm works (ranking the game for excitement) here.


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