How to Tell How Exciting a Game Was – From Just In-Game Data

rooney west ham gif

ROOOOOOOONEY!

We all have our favourite sports, and our favourite sport moments that make the highlight reels.

However, what if you could judge how boring or exciting a game was, simply by analysing the in-play implied percentages for each team or outcome?

This is what is promised by a new site, Gambletron2000.com.

gambletron_man_utd_vs_b_munich

Here is the graph of the recent Champions League game between Man United and Bayern Munich. You can see how dramatic the betting market responds to a goal- the implied probability for a Man United win spikes sharply upwards when Vidic scored, then sharply back down when Bayern equalised. The game ends a 1-1 draw, as you can see the implied chance for either team scoring trended towards 0% as the 90 minutes approached. The fixture between Atletico Madrid and Barcelona finishing in a similar fashion:

gambletron_barcelona_vs_atl_madrid

 

There could be interesting opportunities for profit when analysing games like this.

Read the full article on how the “hotness” algorithm works (ranking the game for excitement) here.

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